Financial markets and tariffs have dominated the news cycle for the past three days and are likely to continue influencing the narrative in the foreseeable future.

While I acknowledge the recent events as concerning, I am not surprised nor am I alarmed.

Through my research, one economist has emerged as a prominent voice: Austan Goolsbee, the current president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He is a well-respected economist with an impressive resume, including his service as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama and as an advisor to President Biden during his 2020 presidential campaign.

In an interview on Wednesday, Mr. Goolsbee clarified the distinction between “hard” data and “soft” data. He explained that hard data is factual, verifiable information that has transpired, while soft data gauges business and consumer sentiment regarding anticipated outcomes. In short, Mr. Goolsbee distinguished between hard data, which represents actual events, and soft data, which reflects public perceptions of future possibilities.

Mr. Goolsbee explained that the “discrepancy between what business people say and what the hard numbers show is about as big as it has been in modern memory.”

This serves as a clear and concise message.

Undoubtedly, the decisions made by President Trump and his administration have significantly impacted the global economy. However, the current market volatility is primarily driven by fear rather than objective data.

At Tea Olive Capital, we remain focused on economic developments and diligently manage your portfolio to mitigate potential losses.

As always, the Tea Olive Capital team is committed to providing support and guidance.

Should you wish to schedule a meeting or meeting with me

Thank you,
Gil Allensworth